Policy Stability to Avoid Uncertainty

Aug 16 2024 | Activities

Ensuring predictability, consistency, and stability in policy-making is a crucial factor in creating a favorable macroeconomic environment.

  • Government ministries and agencies are lacking the capacity for forecasting, policy planning, and implementation, leading to instability in various sectors.

  • Errors in policy management and execution are undermining the trust of both domestic and international citizens and businesses in the government's capacity.

  • To improve the situation in the short term, it is essential to utilize quality data and enhance policy communication.

Policy Stability to Avoid Uncertainty

Share

However, recent inconsistent and confused policy actions across various sectors have highlighted ongoing challenges in forecasting, policy planning, and implementation by ministries and sectors.

Most recently, the issue of an increasing number of workers withdrawing their social insurance in one lump sum has "heated up," and the Ministry of Labor, Invalids, and Social Affairs to propose a new solution accordingly, limiting withdrawals to 50% of the total amount at once.

Although this is just a proposal among others which maintaining the current policy, it has immediately caused anxiety among a significant portion of workers, especially those already facing economic difficulties.

These issues are not isolated to labor and social fields alone. Previously, the retail fuel market, overseen by the Ministry of Industry and Trade, fell into disarray.

In the financial market, it is difficult to claim that the State Bank has fulfilled its responsibility to oversee the corporate bond market.

In the transportation sector, violations leading to investigations, prosecutions, and the suspension of inspection centers nationwide have raised questions about the Ministry of Transport's capacity to organize, regulate, and oversee this market.

If necessary to list, many disruptions stem from unreasonable policies, regulations, and weak supervision during implementation.

The consequences of limited policy management have become clear, as citizens and businesses bear direct losses: shortages of medicine, business disruptions due to fuel shortages, vehicles unable to pass inspection, and delays and stagnation caused by inconsistent administrative procedures and documentation, etc.

More seriously and permanently, public and business confidence, both domestic and international, in the government’s management and regulatory capacity is at stake. The predictability of policies is essential to building trust so that investors feel secure in investing their assets and efforts in a country.

A nation's potential, and the promises and reputation of its government leaders when inviting investment, can be undermined by inconsistent and contradictory execution within the bureaucracy.

Capacity—including vision, forecasting ability, rationality in policy design, and implementation capabilities within ministries—cannot be easily improved overnight. However, in the short term, some immediate solutions are possible.

Firstly, effective forecasting and governance require reliable data and information and the ability to analyze and "read" data to inform decisions and make quick adjustments. Digital technology, with a focus on digital data, offers a golden opportunity to provide quality data for policymakers.

Second, greater emphasis should be placed on policy communication, particularly leveraging the strengths of social media in this process.

In addition to the press, social media is an effective tool for government agencies to gather public and business opinions and to promptly disseminate policy information to reassure and maintain public confidence.

Trust, although intangible, is the most valuable asset a government can have from its people. Creating and executing policies that build public trust is crucial, especially in times of significant change.

Nguyen Quang Dong - Director, Institute for Policy Studies and Media Development (IPS)

Source: Tuổi Trẻ Online

This translation was assisted by an automated AI translation tool.